أثر سعر الصرف على معدل البطالة في اقتصاد المغرب
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v9i1.248الكلمات المفتاحية:
معدل البطالة، سعر الصرف، معدل التضخم، نمو النقود، نمو الناتج المحليالملخص
نظراً للاستمرار في ارتفاع معدلات البطالة في دولة المغرب، تبحث الدراسة في الآثار الاقتصادية لسعر الصرف الحقيقي الفعال، إضافة إلى متغيرات اقتصادية كلية أخرى على معدل البطالة في المغرب في المدة الزمنية 1991 إلى 2016. وتظهر نتائج تطبيق الاقتصاد القياسي لنموذج ARDL أن سعر الصرف يفسر النسبة الأكبر من التباين في البطالة؛ إذ يؤدي انخفاض قيمة الدرهم المغربي وزيادة التضخم إلى ارتفاع معدلات البطالة في المغرب على المدى الطويل، وإنَّ نمو النقد والناتج المحلي الإجمالي لهما علاقات عكسية مع البطالة على المدى الطويل مما يشير إلى الأدوار المهمة للمتغيرين كلاهما في خفض معدلات البطالة، وتوصي الدراسة بضرورة أن يصمم المغرب سياسة سعر الصرف وبرامج إصلاح التجارة للحفاظ على قيمة حقيقية قوية للدرهم المغربي. وتحتاج السلطة المغربية إلى إبقاء التضخم تحت السيطرة، واعتماد سياسات تعزز نمواً نقدياً أعلى لتشجيع الاستثمار وتوليد نموٍ أعلى للناتج المحلي الإجمالي في المستقبل لتقليل معدلات البطالة في الاقتصاد المغربي.
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