العلاقات والتأثيرات الديناميكية بين مخاطر الأسواق المالية ومتغيرات استقرار الاقتصاد الكلي في الأردن

المؤلفون

  • Naseem Abu Roman قسم العلوم المصرفية والمالية، كلية الأعمال والتمويل جامعة العلوم الإسلامية العالمية، عمان، الأردن https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8686-3759

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v12i1.2122

الكلمات المفتاحية:

مخاطر السوق المالية، الأردن، عملية تبديل ماركوف على أساس الدولتين، الانحدار الذاتي المتجه

الملخص

الأهداف: تبحث هذه الدراسة في العلاقة المعقدة بين مخاطر السوق المالية وثلاثة مؤشرات لاستقرار الاقتصاد الكلي هي: معدل البطالة، والتضخم الرئيسي، وتضخم التعادل باستخدام البيانات الثانوية من يناير 2022 إلى ديسمبر 2023.

المنهجية: باستخدام الانحدار الذاتي المقارب للمتجه (VAR) المُحسّن بواسطة معيار معلومات شوارتز (SIC) وعملية تبديل ماركوف ذات الاحتمالية القصوى، تبحث هذه الدراسة في التفاعلات الديناميكية وتأثيرات التغذية المرتدة بين متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي فيما يتعلق بتحولات السجل في المالية مخاطر السوق.

النتائج: تكشف النتائج عن أنماط مختلفة في تأثير مخاطر السوق المالية على البطالة والتضخم، حيث تُظهر النتائج تأثيرًا كبيرًا وإيجابيًا لمخاطر السوق المالية على البطالة، تشير نتائج الدراسة إلى وجود تأثيرات غير متجانسة لمخاطر السوق المالية على التضخم، ووجود علاقة بين مخاطر السوق المالية ومؤشرات استقرار الاقتصاد الكلي، وكذلك وجود علاقة بين الهجرة القسرية وانخفاض التضخم، وتشير هذه الاتجاهات إلى وجود ديناميكية بين تصور السوق للمخاطر والتطور المتوقع للتضخم. وتعني العلاقة بين معدل الهجرة القسرية ومعدلات التضخم التي تصل إلى نقطة التعادل ضمناً وجود ترابط بين تصور السوق للمخاطر وتوقعات التضخم على المدى الطويل.

الخلاصة: خلصت هذه الدراسة إلى أنّ المخاوف بشأن تباطؤ الاقتصاد (ارتفاع معدلات البطالة) وانخفاض التضخم (التضخم الضمني في السوق) هي العوامل الرئيسية التي تؤدي إلى تفاقم مخاطر السوق.

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التنزيلات

منشور

2025-01-01

كيفية الاقتباس

Abu Roman, N. . (2025). العلاقات والتأثيرات الديناميكية بين مخاطر الأسواق المالية ومتغيرات استقرار الاقتصاد الكلي في الأردن . المجلة الأردنية للعلوم الاقتصادية, 12(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v12i1.2122

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