محاكاة الأثر الاقتصادي لعقوبات الاحتلال من خلال تقليص العمالة الفلسطينية في إسرائيل على المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في فلسطين: دراسة باستخدام نموذج التوازن العام القابل للحوسبة CGE))
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v12i2.3212الكلمات المفتاحية:
نموذج التوازن الكلي العام القابل للحوسبة (CGE)، المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكليةالملخص
الأهداف: يهدف هذا البحث الى محاكاة الآثار المحتملة للعقوبات الاقتصادية التي يفرضها الاحتلال، مع تركيز خاص على نتائج تقليص حركة العمالة الفلسطينية إلى إسرائيل.
المنهجية: تم استخدام نموذج التوازن الكلي العام القابل للحوسبة ( (CGE، مدعومًا بمنهج وصفي تحليلي يدمج مراجعة الأدبيات المتعلقة بنظريات النمو الاقتصادي والدراسات التجريبية ذات الصلة .
© 2025 DSR Publishers/ The University of Jordan.
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النتائج: أظهرت محاكاة تقليص عدد العمال الفلسطينيين في إسرائيل بنسبة 90%، وهو سيناريو محتمل بعد حرب غزة - عن آثار سلبية جسيمة على الاقتصاد الكلي. تشير النتائج الى ارتفاع معدل البطالة إلى 15.69%، وانكماش الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي بنسبة 6.39%، وانخفاض استهلاك الأسر بنسبة 21.77%. علاوة على ذلك، تراجعت الواردات بنسبة 5.30%، وارتفع مؤشر أسعار المستهلك (CPI) بنسبة 3.71%، وانخفضت الإيرادات الحكومية الاجمالية بنسبة 2.07%. تُبرز هذه النتائج المترابطة التداعيات الاقتصادية الخطيرة للقيود المفروضة على حركة العمالة تحت الاحتلال، وتكشف عن هشاشة هيكلية في أنماط الاستهلاك، وديناميكيات التجارة، والاستقرار المالي.
الخلاصة: تُبرز النتائج هشاشة الاقتصاد الفلسطيني أمام الصدمات الخارجية، لا سيما تلك المرتبطة بقيود سوق العمل التي يفرضها الاحتلال. تُوصي الدراسة بتقليل الاعتماد على الاسواق الخارجية، وتدعو صانعي السياسات إلى تطوير استراتيجيات للتخفيف من آثار هذه الصدمات، بما في ذلك تنويع القطاعات الاقتصادية وتعزيز قدرة السوق العمل المحلي على استيعاب العمالة المُهجَّرة.
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