أثر عدم اليقين في سياسة الاقتصاد الكلي على جودة البيئة في الأردن: أدلة من نهج المحاكاة الديناميكية الجديدة
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v10i2.1399الكلمات المفتاحية:
التأخر، الموزع الديناميكي، منحنى كوزنتس البيئي، الاقتصاد الأردني، عدم اليقين في سياسة الاقتصاد الكليالملخص
الأهداف: على مدى السنوات القليلة الماضية، نما الاقتصاد الأردني بسرعة، مما جعله يحتل مكانة ملحوظةً بين الأسواق الناشئة في العالم والاقتصادات النامية بسرعة. تشتهر البلاد بمواردها الطبيعية المتنوعة، ومع ذلك، فإنّ آثار عدم اليقين في الاقتصاد الكلي، وكثافة الطاقة، والانفتاح التجاري على البيئة قد حظيت باهتمام أقل من التداعيات البيئية لتوليد الطاقة. يسد هذا البحث فجوة كبيرة في الأدبيات من خلال التحقيق في تأثير عدم اليقين في سياسة الاقتصاد الكلي على منحنى كوزنتس البيئي في الأردن من 1970 إلى 2021. استخدمت هذه الدراسة إطارًا منهجياً لمحاكاة الانحدار الذاتي الموزع الديناميكي. وكشفت نتائج الدراسة أنّ عدم اليقين بشأن الاتجاه المستقبلي لسياسة الاقتصاد الكلي يُسرِّعُ من معدل التدهور البيئي على المدى القصير والطويل. يؤدي النمو الاقتصادي إلى تسريع التدهور البيئي بينما يؤدي مربع النمو الاقتصادي إلى إبطائه، مما يؤكد وجود فرضية منحنى كوزنتس البيئي ؛ تعمل كثافة الطاقة على تسريع معدل تدهور جودة البيئة.
الخلاصة: يجب على الأردن اعتماد تقنيات متقدمة وصديقة للبيئة ونظيفة تنتقل من الوقود الأحفوري إلى مصادر الطاقة المتجددة منخفضة الكربون. يجب على الحكومة إقامة شراكات دولية قوية لتبادل التكنولوجيا والحفاظ على البيئة. بالإضافة إلى ذلك ، فإن زيادة التعقيد الاقتصادي في الأردن أمر بالغ الأهمية لتحقيق أهداف التنمية البيئية.
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