ماذا يحدد طلب مصر على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية؟
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v11i1.1454الملخص
الأهداف: الهدف الرئيسي من هذه الورقة هو التعرف على محددات الطلب على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في مصر.
المنهجية: تمّ استخدام نموذج المخزون الاحتياطي، والبيانات ربع السنوية التي تغطي العشرين عامًا الماضية، ونموذج الانحدار الذاتي ذي الفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL) لتقدير دالة الطلب في مصر على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية، وتقييم استقرارها، والتنبؤ عن مدى سرعة تعديله في حالة الاضطراب في العلاقة الأساسية المدمجة.
النتائج: تُظهر النتائج أنّ الصادرات والواردات تتمتع بمرونة طلب على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية تبلغ 1.16 و -3.69 على التوالي. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، زادت الأصول الاحتياطية الأجنبية في مصر بشكل كبير بسبب نمو الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر واستثمارات المحافظ الأجنبية. وأخيرا، فإنّ دالة الطلب على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية ثابتة، وفي حالة حدوث صدمة، فإنها تعود إلى حالتها الثابتة في أقل من عامين.
الخلاصة: لتحسين احتياطيات مصر من الاحتياطي الأجنبي، يجب على صناع السياسات التركيز على التدابير التي تشجع الصادرات وتجذب الاستثمار الأجنبي.
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