أثر تذبذب الصادرات على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر خلال الفترة 1992-2016: دراسة قياسية

المؤلفون

  • Mohamed Moussa Traore Assistant Professor, The University of Abou Bakr Belkaid –Algeria
  • Nahil Saqfalhait Professor of Economics, Department of Business Economics, School of Business. The University of Jordan, Jordan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1477-1204
  • Rami Abu Wadi Associate Professor of Accounting and Economics, College of Business and Finance Ahlia University, Bahrain
  • Omar Mohammad Alzoubi Economic Researcher, Jordan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v11i2.1258

الكلمات المفتاحية:

تذبذب الصادرات، النمو الاقتصادي، الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، الجزائر

الملخص

الأهداف: تُعدّ مشكلة تذبذب الصادرات في اقتصادات البلدان الأقل نمواً موضوعا مُهمّاً في الأدبيات الاقتصادية ، وتهدف هذه الورقة إلى دراسة التأثير المحتمل لتذبذب الصادرات على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر.

المنهجية: تستخدم الدراسة نموذج الاقتصاد القياسي لتقدير تأثير تذبذب الصادرات على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر للفترة 1992-2016، إضافة إلى ذلك، تمّ استخدام نموذج انحدار آخر لتحليل آثار التذبذبات في أسعار الصادرات وكمياتها على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر.

النتائج: أظهرت النتائج أنه لا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين مؤشر عدم استقرار الصادرات والناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي، وهذا يعني أنّ تذبذب الصادرات لا يُشكّل عقبة أمام الأداء الاقتصادي في الجزائر.

الخلاصة: كشفت الدراسة أنّ التذبذبات في الأسعار وكميات الصادرات لا تؤثر على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي في الجزائر. أوصت الدراسة بأهمية توجه صانعي السياسات إلى تقليل اعتماد قطاع التصدير على المنتجات النفطية وتحسين الأداء الصناعي في الجزائر، إضافة إلى أهمية العمل على تنفيذ خطط تثبيت الأسعار وتخصيص المزيد من الأموال الاحتياطية للنفط للحدّ من الآثار الضارة المحتملة لتذبذب الصادرات على الأداء الاقتصادي للجزائر في المستقبل.

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التنزيلات

منشور

2024-07-01

كيفية الاقتباس

Traore, M. M. ., Saqfalhait, N. ., Abu Wadi, R. ., & Alzoubi, O. M. . (2024). أثر تذبذب الصادرات على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر خلال الفترة 1992-2016: دراسة قياسية. المجلة الأردنية للعلوم الاقتصادية, 11(2), 84–101. https://doi.org/10.35516/jjes.v11i2.1258

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